By HOLLY GASKILL
While some numbers show growth, Jim O’Donnell is far from satisfied with current economic indicators — and even less with some cultural factors.
“I think we’re at a crossroads, not just financially, not just economically,” O’Donnell opened his presentation. “We’re flirting with a different kind of nation, a nation that is much more dependent on government and a nation that is, in many ways, stagnating in dynamic areas of community growth (and) of business development. We’re sitting in an environment where economics are simply not as important as I wish people saw them to be.”
O’Donnell delivered his annual economic forecast Thursday morning at the Wells County Commerce and Visitors Centre. O’Donnell has an extensive history in business and economics, publishing several books and holding the position of emeritus executive-in-residence at Huntington University.
His assessment was broken down into nine positive indicators and 13 negative, although they didn’t carry equal measure. For example, while the stock market shows some growth, O’Donnell expressed concern with taking these numbers at face value — only seven companies accounted for the vast majority of growth in the S&P 500.
By and large, O’Donnell believes these slow growth markers to be “scars” of the last two years. However, he also finds reasons for caution — a changing cultural landscape high among them.
The younger generation, O’Donnell observed, seems to have a higher pessimism toward the U.S. and capitalism at large. He added, “Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy has been deeply influenced by changing cultures, by a seeming willingness to involve government more and more and more in how we run our lives.”
O’Donnell later compared this cultural battle to going to the doctor for a broken leg while having metastatic cancer. “We’re dealing with something that needs to be dealt with,” he said. “But there’s bigger issues that we don’t seem to be dealing with.”
Additionally, O’Donnell is concerned with current geopolitical events, namely the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine. While making no particular claims, he advised, “This could explode in the markets.”
O’Donnell is also keeping his eye on several other matters, specifically the federal monetary policy, lending rates and the yield curve. While these are no sole markers of instability, they’re shown “interesting” patterns, O’Donnell remarked.
Separately, O’Donnell expressed skepticism of cultural leanings toward artificial intelligence and electric vehicles, which he finds have not proven their profitability long-term. While emphasizing he is not opposed to green energy and finds AI to be a “trick pony,” O’Donnell cautioned against putting the cart before the horse.
In contrast to previous years’ presentations, O’Donnell did not make many assertions about the economy’s direction. He touted no obvious warning sirens nor claimed any strong growth forward.
However, O’Donnell did recommend investing more in the stock market over bonds. O’Donnell advised he currently has roughly 50 percent of his own portfolio in the market.
O’Donnell summarized, “We’re going through a rough patch. We’ve been here before. American business people, like you guys, can fix things, adapt, (and) we can grow again. But culturally, politically, we are in a crisis.”
holly@news-banner.com
