A number of years ago, a good friend and I were commiserating, perhaps over a brew or two, about how to advance our fortunes. Recent graduates of the University of Ball State, we were sure we had more answers than questions.
He had read something or received a tip about a low-priced stock that was hot, so we pooled a few hundred dollars and began investing in what was then called penny stocks — certainly an essential element in any portfolio. Actually we did OK for a while, but it all eventually disappeared. This is where I honed my stock-picking talents.
Our local Rotary Club has an annual fundraiser utilizing the NCAA Tournament. My March Madness picks had consistently scored at the bottom or very near, until this past year when I totally copied a supposed expert on the CBS Sports website. I came in second or third.
I once offered our financial advisers my services — for a fee — as a stock picker with the understanding that whatever stock I say “buy,” they sell and whatever “sell” recommendation I make, they promptly buy. After monitoring a few of my choices, they actually considered it. Sorta. I know they were just humoring me.
The point being: I am a cursed prognosticator. Online sports betting looks like a fun little hobby but I have no doubt how I would do. And I would surely put a curse on my favorite teams. So I thought I would put that to work on the 2024 election that cometh by saying: Trump is toast.
Seriously. If he continues his current strategy of opening his mouth and saying stupid things, the undemocratically selected nominee-to-be from the Orwellian Democratic Party will win it in a walk and then, of course, save democracy. Trump has shown that, just as he did in 2020, he will manage to defeat himself because he cannot help being Trump.
He had two chances, from this perspective, to sew this race up: He could have picked Nikki Halley as his running mate, who would have appeased the swing voters and united the Republican Party as much as possible. I’m pretty sure she never uttered the phrase “childless cat ladies,” and she would have brought some true, conservative principles with her, something Trump’s actual pick, J.D. Vance, sorely lacks.
While I like his humble beginnings and enjoyed his book, he is on record, according to the Wall Street Journal, of supporting a $20 per hour national minimum wage. He is pro-union: “Great to visit the auto workers striking at Toledo this morning.” Biden? Kamala? Nope, that was J.D. in October 2023 after showing his support at the UAW picket line. Just this past February, he said Federal Trade Commission Chairman Lisa Kahn is “doing a pretty good job.” At, apparently J.D. believes, creating a host of new regulations and hoops for businesses to jump through and losing anti-trust suits to regulate prices on such staples as luxury purses.
And then Trump could have had a statesman-like acceptance speech. Instead, feeling knighted and approved by the Almighty Himself by sparing his life, he doubled down on being Trump for 93 minutes. Best line I’ve heard: “If God was really looking out for Trump he would have interrupted his acceptance speech about half-way through.”
The election will be decided by swing voters in six or seven states. That’s who he needs to appeal to, not his base. But he’s not smart enough to understand that.
If he agrees to a debate, he will find that he will not be able to bluster this opponent with BS. He could kill her on policy but that would require him to understand it. Or, as Mark Franke put it in a somewhat related essay on this page Wednesday regarding “disarming rhetorical violence,” “Agitation allows us to avoid talking about the issues themselves, which can be hard work.”
Meanwhile, Kamala Harris will utilize her relative youth and the perception of a fresh approach. Her “We can’t go back” line has a nice forward-sounding ring to it that will appeal to those swing voters … unless of course, they actually think about what they might be able to go back to. Like a controlled border, low inflation, energy independence, coercion on what kind of car or stove to buy and a world in less turmoil. But I’m betting they won’t.
Unless something miraculous happens — like Trump not being Trump — we’re looking at four more years of however you want to describe the past three and a half. Or worse. Honestly, I don’t know which of our two choices is worse; it is so hard to tell. But it doesn’t matter, Trump is toast.
That’s my on-record prediction. Kind of like picking a stock or filling out a bracket.
miller@news-banner.com
