Now that Donald Trump has been federally indicted, will he remain the Republican nominee frontrunner?
Hard to predict at this point.
That question leads me to another. If Trump does indeed become the nominee, does that guarantee a second term for Joe Biden?
Trump’s mounting baggage now has us awaiting resolution on two criminal cases. There will likely be additional indictments coming shortly.
Guilty verdicts would not preclude him from holding public office. Appeals would also make it unlikely that either case would be adjudicated in time to matter.
The basis for my Biden question doesn’t center around any legal outcomes. What I am pondering is do those indictments matter to swing voters? Here in Indiana, one of the reddest states in the Union, the answer is no. The Republican nominee will likely carry the state in the 2024 general election.
Democrats have only won our state twice since 1940. Lyndon Johnson in 1968 and Barack Obama in 2008.
States like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are the most likely swing states. Many of those states have rejected handpicked Trump candidates recently. Pennsylvania chose John Federman over Dr. Mehmet Oz in their Senate race last year. Likewise, Georgia chose Raphael Warnock over Herschel Walker. Arizona chose Katie Hobbs over Kari Lake for Governor.
I don’t think Trump is going to win over any of those states next year.
His influence has waned significantly with independent voters since 2016. According to multiple polls, that election featured the two most hated presidential candidates of all time, Trump and Hillary Clinton. For Independents, selecting the second-most-hated candidate of all time was the lesser of two evils.
Would Trump have that luxury in 2024? He didn’t in 2020.
Has Trump become more likeable in the past few years? Of course not.
Anything can happen in the next 500 days I suppose.
Getting out to the polls to vote is a privilege and we should all do our civic duty. As noted above, Presidential elections aren’t decided by Indiana voters. Presidential elections are decided by a few million voters in a small number of swing states. The rest of the 330 million U.S. citizens live with those consequences.
For Hoosiers to make an impact in the 2024 Presidential election, it has to happen in our primary. We need to choose a Republican nominee who has a chance of winning a general election.
Who is that candidate? I have no idea right now. It’s still early in the process. I don’t believe it should be Donald Trump.
If you want another four years from Joe Biden, the best way to secure that outcome may well be to vote for Trump in the 2024 primary.
My hope is that we choose someone more electable.
dougb@news-banner.com
